We ’re only three - quarter through this class , but scientist in China are already portend that 2023 is likely to see the hottest global surface temperature in record story . Moreover , there ’s a secure fortune we ’ll see criminal record - smashing temperatures in 2024 too if current trajectories are anything to go by .
There are a few element driving this trend . Firstly , the long - term course of human - drivenclimate modification . Secondly , the Earth is currently in itsEl Niñowarming phase , along with the extremely cocksure phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ( AMO ) , which both influence global surface temperature .
Altogether , the investigator of this latest study contend that the yearly average surface temperature anomaly in 2023 could be around 1.26 ° C ( 2.26 ° fluorine ) high than the previous phonograph record interpret in2016of approximately 1.25 ° C ( 2.25 ° F ) .
scientist at Sun Yat - sen University in China based their findings on data from the China global Merged Surface Temperature dataset 2.0 ( CMST 2.0 ) , the most comprehensive global surface temperature bench mark dataset to date .
Their depth psychology found that 2023 has already live the third hot first six calendar month of the yr since records began , beaten only by 2016 and 2020 .
Since then , the office has go on , with temperature reaching unprecedented highs for July and shattering previous record book . The world ’s hottest daysince records begin was seen on July 3 , 2023 , but it wasquickly beatenby temperatures on July 4 , which was almost 1 ° 100 ( 1.8 ° atomic number 9 ) higher than the 1979 - 2000 average .
These baking temperature , in part , can be excuse byEl Niño - Southern Oscillation , the pattern of climate fluctuation in the Pacific Ocean that has a global impact on the world . Around June , the planetentered an El Niño phase , which is wide known to be associated with higher global temperature as the ocean channelise some of the extra heat and moisture to the ambiance .
With El Niñonowin full swing , we can have a bun in the oven to see further high temperatures in the rest part of 2023 .
The planet has already warm up by around 1.2 ° C above pre - industrial times . With the spare button of El Niño , there’sa chancethat Earth ’s temperature could temporarily exceed the all important 1.5 ° C threshold of the Paris Agreement , mark a disheartening milestone in the major planet ’s mood crisis .
“ With El Niño activate a book - breaking hottest July , record - breaking middling annual temperature will most likely become a reality in 2023 , ” the study authors write .
“ The acceleration of global thawing result in an increment in the probability of various uttermost climate upshot and even disasters , ” they add .
These results ring findingsearlier this yearthat had already predicted 2023 would be in the top five hottest years on record if not the blistering once El Niño was confirmed .
“ The intensification of global warming will also have a significant encroachment on human comfort under the condition of speed temperature , and human irritation will increase significantly , which will be more prominent in low-pitched latitude than high latitudes , ” the study conclude .
The study is issue in the journalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences .
